Outlook magazine, in a cover story, has updated what it calls a ‘Gumshoe Guesstimate’ where it asks 29 experts to guess how many seats the NDA is likely to win in the 2014 elections. In September 2013, these experts had put the figure at 187. Now, they are putting it at 229. The magazine itself says that this guesstimate can be “subjective and susceptible to bias.” But it also says that “as opposed to the faceless polls, these individual assessments capture a clearer picture of the complex politics playing out in the states.” Polls might be faceless but they are undertaken by a vast army of field operators who go and ask voters whom they would vote for. The forms are designed in a way to get the best answers as per the demands of psephology. In that sense, the honest results arrived from the data collected would definitely give a better picture of the mind of the voter than any armchair guesstimate. The experts tally is as under:
The experts have given estimates that seem to be too subjective and conservative. At least in seven states, UP, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Karnataka, Bihar and West Bengal, there seems to be a bias too. Let us first take the states of UP, Delhi and Bihar first. In all these states, the experts are of the view that faulty selection of candidates, along with lack of prominent candidates in Delhi, will spell doom for the NDA. They are dismissive of the Modi wave.
In Delhi for instance, in the recent assembly polls, the BJP won 44.3 percent of the popular votes and the Shiromani Akali Dal won 1.43 percent in the 4 seats it contested. AAP got 40 percent and the Congress 11.43 percent. Since then, the AAP has had a negative swing due to its bhagoda image. Even Arvind Kejriwal has admitted that the timing of the resignation was not right. Hence, they are likely to lose some vote percentage. So it is baffling that the expert has given only 2 seats to the BJP while saying that the Congress is nowhere in the picture. In a head to head fight, the BJP is likely to win at least 6 seats in Delhi.
Again, in UP the expert gives NDA only 30 seats while the latest opinion poll by NDTV gives it 51. The reason cited is again wrong choice of candidates. But the UP mathematic is totally different. There is a strong Modi wave in the state and the vote will not be for the candidate but for Modi and NDA. This is the picture emerging from the streets and alleys. Only the polarization of votes might make it tough for the NDA, but that again is a factor only in 8 to 10 seats where the minority population is close to or above 30 percent. Again, the BJP is likely to benefit if the Muslim and dalit votes get divided between the ‘strong’ candidates put up by the SP, BSP and Congress. So even if the NDA does not get 51, the tally is likely to be much higher than 30.
The same scenario presents itself in Bihar. Nitish Kumar is looking at the bottom of the barrel with a resurgent Laloo projected to eat into his vote banks. In their fight, the BJP is likely to get at least 24-25 seats. In Rajasthan, the assembly poll results are too fresh to give BJP just 16 seats. Estimate on the basis of those figures make it closer to 20. In Karnataka, even though the BJP has lost ground due to the corruption in its government and lost the state elections despite campaigning by Modi, it has recovered some of the lost ground by presenting its development agenda in arguably the most development conscious state in India. The only thing that might go against the party is the absence of IT as the driving force in the Gujarat model which is based more on manufacturing. Still, it is likely to get much more than the 6 seats the expert has predicted for it. In West Bengal, the expert says it will not open its account. But ground reports suggest that despite a projected loss in Darjeeling, (which again is subjective as although the plains are pained at Modi’s support to Gorkhaland, the hills are angry that the TMC has put up an outsider in footballer Bhaichung Bhutia. Hence, the result can go either way) the party might spring a surprise or two down south.
These elections have a twist – the Modi wave. It is a media creation for some, powered by crony capitalists. But even those who say this are admitting that there is a wave. The BJP thinks this wave is going to skew results everywhere and send all guesstimates for a toss. For the Modi bhakts (as well as the illegal betting syndicates) talking about anything less than 300 seats for NDA is sacrilege. For the skeptics, it is unlikely to get above 230. The latest opinion poll says 275. By the evening of 16th May, we will get to know whether the country will have a stable government or a period of horse trading and the resultant uncertainty. By that time, live with the ‘gumshoe guesstimate’ or the opinion polls – the choice is yours.
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